A year has passed since the last military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors in South Asia – India and Pakistan – with no visible prospects for a diplomatic resolution and a high risk of new escalations. This makes the region another potential flashpoint ready to flare up at any moment, especially given the current global turbulence.
The terror attack of April 22 last year in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, killed 26 Indian tourists – predominantly Hindus – marking the deadliest incident in Indian territory since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. It triggered a sharp military response by India against Pakistan, as the latter was believed to have backed the attack. Islamabad has denied its involvement. Meanwhile, an armed group called The Resistance Front (TRF), which demands independence for Kashmir, claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam attack; India claims the TRF is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based armed group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).
In response, India launched precision strikes under Operation Sindoor, targeting the terror infrastructure behind the deadly attack across Pakistan and the Pakistani-occupied part of Kashmir. The operation eliminated over 100 militants linked to groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen. The military infrastructure and assets of the Pakistani Armed Forces were targeted as well. Regarding Operation Sindoor, the Indian Air Force revealed it destroyed 13 Pakistani aircraft, targeted 11 Pakistani airfields, dismantled several terror camps, and neutralized Pakistani airborne military assets.
As military reporters from more than 20 countries – including myself – were briefed in detail during a familiarization trip to India this February by the Armed Forces’ high command, Operation Sindoor was a carefully prepared and highly coordinated countermeasure. It was designed not only to hold Pakistan responsible for the Pahalgam attack but also to demonstrate India’s strategic dominance and precision-strike capability. Furthermore, a decision was made by India’s political and military leadership to proceed with a limited escalation, which allowed them to achieve the operation’s priorities while keeping the confrontation under control to avoid a large-scale war.
During Operation Sindoor, the Indian Armed Forces tested precision air strikes, long-range missile attacks, radar suppression missions, and drone-based targeting systems, showcasing India’s deep-strike capability. Targets were hit not only in the border regions but also tens of kilometers deep within Pakistani territory. According to details revealed by the Indian Air Force, seven airfields of strategic importance were targeted: while some are located 30 to 100 km deep inside Pakistan (Rahim Yar Khan, Chunian, Nur Khan, Bholari), others were hit at distances of up to 170 km (such as Rafiqui and Jacobabad). As Vishnu Som concludes in The Sky Warriors, the strike on Nur Khan was the clearest signal to the Pakistani leadership that India was prepared to climb the escalation ladder. Located just 10 km northwest of Islamabad, the Nur Khan airbase serves as a vital transport and refueling hub for the PAF. Furthermore, its proximity to the Strategic Plans Division—which oversees Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal—underscored the high-stakes nature of the operation and India’s willingness to strike at the heart of Pakistan’s strategic infrastructure.
In response, Pakistan launched coordinated drone and missile counterstrikes targeting over a dozen Indian military installations across the Northern and Western theaters, including Srinagar, Jammu, Pathankot, Amritsar, Ludhiana, Bathinda, and Bhuj. According to the Indian Armed Forces, these counterattacks failed to inflict major damage, and Indian military bases remained operational throughout the escalation.
The Indian Armed Forces also demonstrated coordinated operations under the Joint Command of three services – Army, Air Force, and Navy – improving the effectiveness and coherence of their actions, which is one of the top priorities of India’s military doctrine for the coming years. This operation was an examination not only for Indian military aircraft – ranging from MiG-29s and Su-30s to Rafales and other models of fighter jets and attack helicopters – but also for indigenous artillery systems, rocket launchers, and air defense systems. Pinaka, Akash, and other indigenous assets were operated for the first time in real warfare conditions. The results have generally been satisfactory for the Armed Forces’ High Command, as we were briefed, paving the path for further modernization to ensure indigenous military production meets the needs of future warfare. This is a top priority for India, given its far-reaching ambitions to become a key player in the global military market.
Thus, last year’s escalation could be considered South Asia’s first truly networked, drone-heavy, high-tech military confrontation. Both countries have since increased defense spending, accelerated military modernization, and deepened ties with foreign defense partners.
For Pakistan, the key partner in its confrontation with the world’s most populous nation remains China – a nuclear superpower challenging the U.S. in the struggle for global hegemony. The last escalation further complicated Indian-Chinese relations due to Beijing’s support for Pakistan. Open sources show around 81% of Pakistan’s military hardware originates from China, making Beijing its largest defense supplier. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows China has exported billions of dollars in arms to Pakistan over the last decade, reinforcing deep military ties amid its rivalry with India for dominance in South Asia. Turkey’s alliance and military cooperation with Pakistan – including the conduct of joint military exercises alongside Azerbaijan – is also factored into India’s geopolitical calculations. This has, in turn, driven India’s increased activity in the South Caucasus, notably through its growing military cooperation with Armenia.
Consequently, India faces the challenge of balancing both Pakistan and China across two fronts simultaneously. This is not an easy task, but it is a vital and inescapable necessity.
Compared to ancient times, much has changed fundamentally. Technological breakthroughs have brought new strategies and methods of warfare. While the 21st century was believed to be a time of worldwide stability thanks to international law, history and realism have proven an inscrutable truth: wars can be prevented only by a balance of power and by making the cost of aggression higher and more painful for the adversary. The success of this strategy will determine the future of this long-lasting conflict between two nuclear powers.
Hayk Sahakyan
