The \u201cBurnham bounce\u201d has seen Labour take a lead in three national polls \u2013 days before the new prime minister is set to crush Reform UK in the first major test of his premiership.<\/p>\n
A Survation poll published on Tuesday morning put Labour top with 26 per cent, up one point, with Nigel Farage\u2019s party trailing with 24 per cent, down two points.<\/p>\n
It followed More in Common released on Monday which put Labour ahead with 28 per cent compared to Reform\u2019s 24 per cent. A YouGov poll gave both parties 22 per cent on Monday.<\/p>\n
The findings show Reform\u2019s dominance of polling \u2013 leading in more than 300 consecutive surveys since April 2025 \u2013 has come to a shattering end as Mr Farage\u2019s hopes of becoming prime minister appear to be evaporating after Labour\u2019s change of leader.<\/p>\n
In another blow for Reform, Labour are eyeing a landslide victory in the Manchester mayor by-election, a contest which was called after Mr Burnham resigned from that position to pave a return to Westminster. <\/p>\n
Leading polling expert Lord Hayward told The Independent that the surveys have \u201cchanged the discourse of British politics.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said: \u201cThere is no doubt there is a Burnham bounce and it has happened quicker than most of us expected.<\/p>\n
\u201cPart of it is Andy Burnham himself \u2013 his policies and communication. And part of it is that Keir Starmer is no longer there.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat has coincided with a marked decline in support for Reform. They have real problems.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lord Hayward pointed out that the Tories are in third place in the polls but are now closing the gap on Reform, with Survation putting Kemi Badenoch\u2019s party up two points to 21 per cent.<\/p>\n
Prime minister Andy Burnham during a visit to Alstom Transport in Derby to unveil a change to the education system (PA Wire)He said: \u201cWe are no longer talking about Reform becoming the government \u2013 in fact, there is an open question over whether they are the natural party of the right.\u201d<\/p>\n
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the polls showed that the Starmer \u201cunbounce\u201d \u2013 when Sir Keir announced he was quitting \u2013 was worth two points to Labour in the polls, while the first week of Mr Burnham as PM has added another four points, giving Labour a six point bounce.<\/p>\n
But he warned: \u201cThis is normal. The only new prime minister not to get a bounce in the polls was Liz Truss. When Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair it was worth seven points, Theresa May had four points when replacing David Cameron, Boris Johnson six points when replacing May, and Rishi Sunak four points after replacing Johnson.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe question for Andy Burnham is how long this will last and only time will tell on that.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said Labour were still \u201cneck and neck\u201d with Reform, but added: \u201cLabour have definitely been given a second chance.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr Farage is currently bogged down in a by-election in Clacton after resigning his seat to trigger a vote. An investigation into a \u00a35m donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne is hanging over his head, as well as another into gifts and support he received from convicted money launderer George Cottrell.<\/p>\n
Nigel Farage\u2019s dreams of becoming PM are evaporating (PA)Prof Curtice noted that, since Mr Farage called his by-election in Clacton on 6 July, Reform had dropped an average of three points in the polls.<\/p>\n
He also noted the Tories are averaging 20 per cent for the first time in a year \u2013 describing it as \u201ca mini revival.\u201d<\/p>\n
He went on: \u201cMost of Reform\u2019s votes came off the Conservatives \u2013 so that means the Conservatives are getting votes back off Reform.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lord Hayward also said that Mr Burnham \u201cis using August very well, just as Nigel Farage did last year\u201d with a series of announcements and social media videos putting Labour on the front foot.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn contrast, Reform don\u2019t seem to be able to do anything that can halt their decline,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
According to polling from More in Common, Labour\u2019s candidate for the mayor of Greater Manchester, Bev Craig, would secure 39 per cent of the vote on Thursday, while Reform expected to gain around 19 per cent. The Greens are currently in third place with 14 per cent, with the Tories on 12 per cent.<\/p>\n
In the subsequent run-off, Labour would get around two thirds of the votes against Reform, according to the poll.<\/p>\n
When the contest began, Reform were the narrow favourites after the local elections showed they had the highest level of support in Greater Manchester.<\/p>\n
Sir Keir Starmer was replaced by Andy Burnham earlier this month (PA)Local election results on 7 May in the region gave Reform 30.8 per cent, Labour 23.6 per cent, the Greens 19 per cent and Conservatives 10.4 per cent.<\/p>\n
A Reform spokesperson insisted that the party is \u201ccalm\u201d about the turn in polling.<\/p>\n
The spokesperson said: \u201cWe expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let\u2019s see where everyone is by December.\u201d<\/p>\n
In a note on how things can change, the spokesman added: \u201cTwo years ago Keir Starmer was flying high in the polls, there were comment pieces talking about him being a sex symbol and the \u2018grown ups were back in charge\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Mr Burnham said he would not get \u201ccarried away\u201d but was pleased to have \u201cconnected with people\u201d after a poll gave Labour its first lead for more than a year.<\/p>\n
The prime minister told reporters on a visit to Portsmouth: \u201cI wouldn\u2019t get carried away by any poll. I\u2019m pleased to have made a start where hopefully I\u2019ve connected with people.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd I am talking a lot about Britain believing again and getting its hope back, and I\u2019m not going to apologise for that. I think we should have a bit more of a spring in our step.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The \u201cBurnham bounce\u201d has seen Labour take a lead in three national polls \u2013 days before the new prime minister is set to crush Reform UK in the first major test of his premiership. A Survation poll published on Tuesday morning put Labour top with 26 per cent, up one point, with Nigel Farage\u2019s party […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6000,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n