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Nigel Farage\u2019s decision to stand as MP and take over as party leader could change Reform UK\u2019s chances of winning seats in the general election, says polling firm YouGov.<\/p>\n
Reform was on course to come out of the election empty handed, according to forecasts on Monday.<\/p>\n
But the data\u2019s release came hours after The Independent broke the news that Nigel Farage had decided to stand as the party\u2019s candidate in Clacton, Essex.<\/p>\n
According to YouGov\u2019s director of political analytics, Patrick English, the announcement \u201csignificantly increases the odds\u201d that Reform could win at least one seat \u2013 and even up to four.<\/p>\n
He told The Independent: \u201cI do think that Farage intervening significantly increases the odds of Reform UK winning one, perhaps even two seats in Westminster. You might even put an upper band of four on that depending on what exactly happens between now and 4 July.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added: \u201cCertainly, it will improve Reform\u2019s prospects. It will give them a highly competent, highly experienced strong messenger in Nigel Farage to go out, not just in Clacton, but around the rest of the country, to try and deliver that Reform UK message.\u201d<\/p>\n
Which seats could go to Reform?<\/p>\n
Before Mr Farage\u2019s announcement, YouGov predicted that no seat would be won by Reform, despite 300 candidates throwing their hat in the ring. Any Reform win is still far from certain. <\/p>\n
The seats to watch are those where Reform is fielding its heavy hitters, according to Mr English.<\/p>\n
He said: \u201c[For Reform successes], we\u2019re looking at Clacton. We\u2019re looking at Ashfield, because Lee Anderson is standing there trying to defend his seat as a defector. We\u2019re looking at Boston and Skegness where Richard Tice is standing.\u201d<\/p>\n
YouGov\u2019s polling analysis on Monday suggested that Reform has a margin of 15 points or more to close in its top constituencies, even in Ashfield, where former Tory Mr Anderson hopes to retain the seat. <\/p>\n
In Clacton, Reform was previously 22 points behind the Conservatives, but this gap is expected to close considerably with Mr Farage replacing Tony Mack as the candidate.<\/p>\n
Clacton is the only seat won by UKIP, Mr Farage\u2019s former party, when it was retained in 2015 by Tory defector Douglas Carswell. In 2019 it was gained for the Conservatives by former actor Giles Watling. <\/p>\n
In addition, Mr English suggests keeping an eye on seats in South Yorkshire, where Reform might find success among previous UKIP and Brexit voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re also looking up toward Barnsley and Doncaster,\u201d said Mr English. \u201cThere are a couple of seats there where the Brexit Party did very well in 2019, but I think reform UK could potentially be very strong there as well.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added: \u201cIt\u2019s important to maintain the distinction between UKIP and Reform. One thing that\u2019s very prominent is, of course, Nigel Farage is no longer talking about Brexit, and that was UKIP\u2019s sole purpose. The switch has now gone to focus on immigration and British cultural values. It is a different party, but a lot of its supporters and all of its base will be very similar.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inboxGet our free View from Westminster email Nigel Farage\u2019s decision to stand as MP and take over as party leader could change Reform UK\u2019s chances of winning seats in the general election, says polling firm YouGov. Reform was on course to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3278,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[173],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n