Haley will most certainly lose tonight’s Super Tuesday contestsNikki Haley will most certainly lose tonight’s Super Tuesday contests. The former South Carolina governor unsurprisinly won the Washington, DC primary this weekend. But tonight, she faces a much tougher go at it on Tuesday than in previous contests. But if she’s going to be even remotely competitive against Donald Trump, she will need to perform well in two regions.
Harris County, Texas and Orange County, California are historic bastions of the exact type of wealthy, college-educated voters who have fled the Republican Party since Mr Trump took over.
Ronald Reagan, the former California governor turned saint of the Repiublican Party, famously said Orange County, located just outside of Los Angeles, is where “conservatives go to die. The median income in Orange County according to the US Census is $109,361, much higher than the national $74,580 median income. In addition, almost 43 per cent of the population has at least a bachelor’s degree and 69 per cent of the population is white.
But since the Trump revolution, it’s become fertile territory for Democrats, as it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and again for Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats have begun to flip House seats there.
That being said, some Reagan Republicans who are amenable to Ms Haley’s message of tax cuts and a robust foreign policy remain. If Haley registers at least 30 per cent in Orange County suburbs.
Voters who register no party preference cannot vote in the Republican presidential primary, meaning the independents voters who have kept Haley afloat will not be able to vote in the GOP primary.
The dynamics in Harris County are similar. Harris County, the home of Houston, is flush with cash thanks to the state’s robust oil industry. Historically the home of the Bush dynasty after a Connecticut prep named George Herbert Walker Bush made his money in the energy sector and settled and became chairman of the Harris County GOP, helping to build the Texas GOP.
The University of Houston and Rice University are located there, though 33.2% have at least a bachelor’s degree. Degree attainment is lower there at $70,789, but the suburbs have higher earners. But the suburbs remain fairly upper-class and Barack Obama began to win the suburbs of Houston and it hasn’t looked back. In the same way, Ms Haley will need to overperform. Unlike California, Texas has an open primary, which means she can probably overperform there compared to Orange County.
